- Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Table
- Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Game
- Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Rule
- Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Chart
So it's down to your favourite day of the week – Friday poker night. The first part of the night goes fairly well, but you still haven't hit the big pot that you have been hoping for.
In example 4, the pot odds are 5:1 and the chance of completing his hand are 4.22:1. The pot odds are greater than the odds of completing his flush, so he should call. We could have avoided this scenario by changing the pot odds in our favor. Example 5: If there is $400 in the pot and player we bet $300 (75% of the pot), the pot will grow to $700. The flop comes with a poker flush draw, and they fire a standard continuation bet of about half the pot. As you can see, the Poker Snowie app suggests that you could either flat call or raise, but taking a more aggressive line gives you a chance to win the pot by pure aggression. You have a flush draw on the flop with 9 outs. You will improve it on the turn or river: 9.4=36% and real poker odds are around 35%; You have a straight draw on the flop with 8 outs. You will improve it on the turn or river: 8.4=32% and real poker odds are around 31%; You have two over cards on the turn with 6 outs.
Then, like a gift from above, your first two (pre-flop) cards are an A-K. Just what you've been waiting for! What should your first move be?
A Typical Ace-King Hand – Sound Familiar?
Well your holding one of the stronger hands in poker, so your going to raise it up and not only narrow the field of opponents down but also build some value into the pot. A number of your opponents immediately fold but three opponents call and come along for the ride.
The flop cards are laid down: J, 10, and 3. Well the flop has missed your powerful Ace-King but you have added a very powerful draw with a spade flush draw, a straight flush draw and a gutshot straight draw.
You were the aggressor before the flop and so you come out betting after the flop with a pot sized bet trying to show your opponent that you are still strong and that you mean business. Two of your opponents have seen enough and they pack their bags and get out of the hand but suddenly your third opponent comes back over the top of you with a raise.
Your now faced with a tough decision and you get down to crunching the numbers to see how much money you need to put in to call the raise and what odds you have of actually hitting your draw. Eventually you decide to call the raise.
The turn card is the 8 which completely misses your draw and you are first to act. Now you have a really tough decision to make. Your opponent has shown some serious strength on the flop which gives a strong indication that he has already made his hand and wants to protect it against the flush draw. The flush draw hasn't come and it is very likely that he is going to try and protect it again whether you bet out or not.
So you decide to check and your opponent moves all-in, which forces you away from the hand and you fold.
The above is just an example of how difficult Ace-King can be to play after the flop. It looks pretty and is a very strong starting hand, but at the end of the day it is a drawing hand. If you fail to connect with the flop, turn or river then all you have is Ace high.
So How Should I Play Ace King?
The key to playing Ace-King is to recognize what it really is and play it like a drawing hand. Yes be aggressive with it before the flop, and yes by all means take a stab at a continuation bet if you're playing against the right players that you think will fold even if you don't connect on the flop, but if you are shown signs of resistance and you are confident that your opponent has you beat, then get the hell out of there if you haven't got the correct odds to continue.
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At this point, it is important for you to evaluate what type of players you are up against. In every situation it is imperative that you keep an eye on what actions were taken by your opponents in previous hands so that when you come to face them you can use that information to take the best actions against them.
Casino driving range. If you find yourself up against a very tight player, and he has already called your raise pre-flop and then calls or raises your continuation bet then you can be fairly sure that he has you beat.
Against a more loose player, he may well come along for the ride without much of a hand, and your strong ace high or strong draw could still hold you in good shape.
But Ace-King really is a hand that should be played aggressively before the flop and then cautiously after the flop.
Don't Stake Your Life on Ace King
I always remember a quote I heard from Scotty Nguyen while talking to another player who had just lost a big portion of his stack when he overplayed Ace-King and ran into an opponent who had him well beat.
'I used to be like you, baby. When I was younger I would stake my house, my wife and my car on Ace-King – Then I became a good poker player'
So then how do you go about playing Ace-King after the flop? Well whether you connect with the flop or not, you are probably going to want to put a bet out after the flop to try and find out where you are with your opponents.
You may well take the pot down there and then, or one or more of your opponents may call or raise your bet.
If you get callers or are raised then its time to hit the think tank and try and put your opponent on a hand. Look at the board and try and work out if you think they have already hit a hand, or whether they could have been calling the bet on a draw.
If they are raising, then look at the board and see if there are any kinds of draws showing on the board that your opponent may be trying to protect against with a hand such a top pair or stronger. If your opponent is a good player, then they may well have already put you on a hand like A-K and recognized your continuation bet and be re-raising you to take you off the hand.
Unfortunately there is no set strategy for playing Ace-King after the flop, it is heavily dependent on the type of players you are up against, the cards that have come down on the flop and your table image.
Your now faced with a tough decision and you get down to crunching the numbers to see how much money you need to put in to call the raise and what odds you have of actually hitting your draw. Eventually you decide to call the raise.
The turn card is the 8 which completely misses your draw and you are first to act. Now you have a really tough decision to make. Your opponent has shown some serious strength on the flop which gives a strong indication that he has already made his hand and wants to protect it against the flush draw. The flush draw hasn't come and it is very likely that he is going to try and protect it again whether you bet out or not.
So you decide to check and your opponent moves all-in, which forces you away from the hand and you fold.
The above is just an example of how difficult Ace-King can be to play after the flop. It looks pretty and is a very strong starting hand, but at the end of the day it is a drawing hand. If you fail to connect with the flop, turn or river then all you have is Ace high.
So How Should I Play Ace King?
The key to playing Ace-King is to recognize what it really is and play it like a drawing hand. Yes be aggressive with it before the flop, and yes by all means take a stab at a continuation bet if you're playing against the right players that you think will fold even if you don't connect on the flop, but if you are shown signs of resistance and you are confident that your opponent has you beat, then get the hell out of there if you haven't got the correct odds to continue.
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At this point, it is important for you to evaluate what type of players you are up against. In every situation it is imperative that you keep an eye on what actions were taken by your opponents in previous hands so that when you come to face them you can use that information to take the best actions against them.
Casino driving range. If you find yourself up against a very tight player, and he has already called your raise pre-flop and then calls or raises your continuation bet then you can be fairly sure that he has you beat.
Against a more loose player, he may well come along for the ride without much of a hand, and your strong ace high or strong draw could still hold you in good shape.
But Ace-King really is a hand that should be played aggressively before the flop and then cautiously after the flop.
Don't Stake Your Life on Ace King
I always remember a quote I heard from Scotty Nguyen while talking to another player who had just lost a big portion of his stack when he overplayed Ace-King and ran into an opponent who had him well beat.
'I used to be like you, baby. When I was younger I would stake my house, my wife and my car on Ace-King – Then I became a good poker player'
So then how do you go about playing Ace-King after the flop? Well whether you connect with the flop or not, you are probably going to want to put a bet out after the flop to try and find out where you are with your opponents.
You may well take the pot down there and then, or one or more of your opponents may call or raise your bet.
If you get callers or are raised then its time to hit the think tank and try and put your opponent on a hand. Look at the board and try and work out if you think they have already hit a hand, or whether they could have been calling the bet on a draw.
If they are raising, then look at the board and see if there are any kinds of draws showing on the board that your opponent may be trying to protect against with a hand such a top pair or stronger. If your opponent is a good player, then they may well have already put you on a hand like A-K and recognized your continuation bet and be re-raising you to take you off the hand.
Unfortunately there is no set strategy for playing Ace-King after the flop, it is heavily dependent on the type of players you are up against, the cards that have come down on the flop and your table image.
Before automatically making a continuation bet after the flop you should consider the flop. If you get a combination of cards that would most likely not benefit most of your opponents, then this is a good time to make a continuation bet and possibly take the pot down there and then.
If you get a flop that looks dangerous and may have hit the sort of cards that you think your opponents would call a pre-flop raise with then just use common sense and don't go betting your life on your A-K.
Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Table
If the flop cards are laid down and are in your favour, bet. If they aren't then the better option may be to check.
There is one thing you should keep in mind, if another player decides to bet into you on the flop, don't make the mistake of re-raising! Often times in this situation you will end up getting beat out with a better hand and more often than not an opponent who bets out here will have some type of hand.
In conclusion, it all comes down to having a sensible post flop strategy. It is a wise idea to evaluate the players you are up against and the type of cards in the flop when you see the AK in your pre-flop cards. You also need to pay close attention to the moves made by your opponents. If you make the wrong move, it could cost you a pretty penny.
In the third part of the Paul Phua Poker School series on poker odds, Paul Phua gives tips on predicting the future to improve your present strategy
Would it not be wonderful to have the power to predict the future? It would certainly be easy to make money at betting! Film-lovers will recall how using a sports almanac from the future made Biff Tannen a rich man in the second Back to the Future film.
We can't all have a DeLorean time machine, but in poker we have the next best thing. We have the ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future, and to change our strategy accordingly.
In the first two parts in this mini-series on poker odds, I gave tips on why odds are important, and how to calculate them using a simple magic formula. We have seen already how knowing our likelihood of winning will affect how much we bet. Now here is an interesting application in practical play:
How to play a nut flush draw
As I said in my video on the best pre-flop hands, a suited Ace has great potential as a starting hand, even if your kicker is low. An Ace on the flop often gives you the best hand, though be prepared to fold to opposition if your kicker is weak. And if you flop a flush draw, you are in a very powerful position – more powerful than many people realise.
Let's take the starting hand shown in my video: A4 of diamonds. The flop comes K5 of diamonds, with a 9 of spades. Another player bets. First, do what you should always do when someone bets: work out what hand they are likely to hold.
There's no strong straight draw out there; if he has a flush draw it's worse than yours; sets are uncommon. You can't put him on AK, as he didn't seem that strong in pre-flop betting, so you reckon he has a K: maybe KQ or KJ. So he likely has top pair, and you have nothing – yet! But you have great potential. Let's work out how much.
Count up your 'outs'
There are nine diamonds left to come that complete our flush, plus three Aces to give us a higher pair: that's 12 'outs'. Using our magic formula for calculating the odds, that gives us 12 x 4 = 48% chance of winning by the river. [Mathematicians say the real figure is 45% –the magic formula isn't perfect, but it's close enough.]
Banca francesa casino regras. That's a nearly 1 in 2 chance of winning the pot! Pretty good odds. But the great thing about poker is it's not all cold, hard math. It takes strategy and psychology to decide how to play those odds.
Your instinct here will be to call, and hope to hit. That's a reasonable strategy, and the more people who are in the hand, the better it is. You will likely take all their money if you hit your nut flush – thus being paid several times your investment.
But let's look at another, more advanced strategy, one that is particularly valuable if only one other player is in the hand.
Re-raising for 'fold equity'
Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Game
Unless you are keen to keep a number of people in the pot, a great tactic against a single opponent is to re-raise rather than call. Re-raising gives you 'fold equity'. That's a fancy way of saying it gives you an extra chance at winning: if they get scared and fold, congratulations! You've won the pot with the worst hand. And if they call, you're still a coin-flip to win by the river.
To have fold equity, your bet should be big enough to make them fold. Simply doubling their bet is almost never enough. Even a weak King is likely to call and hope you are semi-bluffing with a flush draw (which you are!), or that they hit two pair on the turn.
So how much do you raise? That calls for psychology: is this player a holder or a folder? Some people are 'calling stations' who will call almost any bet with a pair. With a person like this, you may need to raise bigger. Either way, do it confidently. If you are relatively short-stacked, you can even shove all-in. Don't worry! You are nearly 50-50 to win even if they call.
Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Rule
If they do call – what next?
Maybe they realise you're on flush draw. Maybe they're just stubborn. Whichever, your opponent calls you, and the turn card is a blank – it doesn't help. What now?
Usually now you have no fold equity: if they called a re-raise on the flop, they will often feel committed to call a bet on the turn. And now you have only one card left to come, not two, so your chances of winning are halved to than 1 in 4.
Unless you are a very experienced player with a strong read that your opponent may fold, it's not worth inflating the pot with what are now poor odds of winning. You want to check. The good news is, your opponent will be wary of you and will usually also check, so you get a 'free' card to see the river.
To sum up: when you re-raise on the flop, you have maybe a coin-flip chance of them folding to give you a small pot; and a coin-flip chance of them calling, in which case you then have a coin-flip chance of winning a big pot. Three quarters of the time, therefore, you are winning with a re-raise!
Poker Odds Flush Draw After Flop Chart
Other flush draws
Let's just look quickly at other flush draw combinations that you might not be aware of.
Two more outs: Let's say there was a 4 on the flop rather than the 5, giving your A4 of diamonds a small pair. Now you have two additional outs (either of the two 4s still to come would give you three of a kind to beat his pair of Kings), so you are even better than 50%.
Three more outs: Or let's say the flop came K52. Now with your A4 you additionally have an inside straight draw, giving three extra outs. (There are four 3s that would make a straight. One of these is a diamond and you've already counted that out in your flush draw, hence three extra outs not four).
Three fewer outs: The flush draw to beware of is where you have no extra outs, just the nine cards for your flush. The magic formula tells us that your chances then are just 9 x 4 = 36%, ie 1 in 3. It's a big leak in less experienced players' strategy to chase this kind of flush draw against a single opponent.
In my next article on poker odds and strategy…
I hope the above example shows how knowing the odds – our own probability time machine that lets us peer into future likely outcomes – helps dictate our present strategy. In my next article, I will give you a useful chart of the most common. Learn it well! Read the next article.